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trying to keep their communities in thrall are the ones responsible for the thuggery and murders. A tactical ceasefire means the Good Friday Agreement is no more than another station in the long road to the republican goal.
There are a number of reasons for believing that the tactical option is the more likely. First, the organisation is extensively criminalised and relies hugely on terror. Intelligence reports suggest they may be about to cull recalcitrant leaders, to enforce authority and show the communities they are an effective 'police force'.
Second, the hatred of the British and of the unionist population in the North seems unabated. McKenna recalls the aims of the organisation to 'ethnically cleanse' border areas like South Armagh of all Protestants. These areas are still 'no-go' for the RUC.
Third, the RUC is now under review by a commission headed by the former Hong Kong governor and Tory cabinet minister Chris Patten. Many -such as the Irish writer and unionist Conor Cruise O'Brien - believe it will 'neuter' the RUC; it is certainly likely to reform it, disarm some of its officers and reduce their numbers.
The growing militancy among the unionists is evinced in greater support for the all but defunct protest at Drumcree over a ban on marching. The increasing difficulty over the implementation of the agreement; the IRA's unyielding opposition to decommissioning weapons; the deepening cynicism and despair of the communities -all threaten what had been seen as the greatest achievement of this government.
But one element may be changing. After Andrew Kearney died, his mother Maureen decided to do more than mourn him. A tough and articulate woman in her early 60s, she now seeks publicity for her demand that the perpetrators of the murder - known to her and to the police -be brought to justice. When I saw her earlier this week, she said that if she could get proof, she would do so, even if it meant collaborating with the RUC. 'They can't do anything worse to me,' she said. 'I tell people, for God's sake stand up to them! It's the only way.' It may be the only way, but it is a very hard way, especially for those who go down it first. If it proves too hard, the Agreement may be lost.
This article first appeared in the New Statesman 11 December 1998
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